From the Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Assessing Prabowo-Gibran’s Victory: An Exit-Poll Aftermath Analysis of the 2024 Presidential Election” by Burhanuddin Muhtadi and Kennedy Muslim, May 6, 2024

After a long and widely criticized vote recapitulation process, the General Election Commission (KPU) finally announced the results of the 2024 presidential and legislative elections on March 20, 2024. Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka were declared the winner with a landslide margin of 58.6%, beating rivals Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar at 24.9% and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD at 16.5%.[1]

The KPU’s final vote tally surpassed the predictions of several leading Indonesian pollsters which had estimated Prabowo-Gibran’s victory in the range of 52-54%. How could someone with a track record of human rights violations, who had repeatedly lost elections, suddenly manage to defeat two strong rivals by such a large victory margin? Using exit poll data, this article investigates the factors that contributed to the overwhelming triumph of Prabowo-Gibran. …

Read the whole report at https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2024-32-assessing-prabowo-gibrans-victory-an-exit-poll-aftermath-analysis-of-the-2024-presidential-election-by-burhanuddin-muhtadi-and-kennedy-muslim/

Burhanuddin Muhtadi is Visiting Fellow of ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore, and Professor of Politics at the State Islamic University, Jakarta.

Kennedy Muslim is Senior Researcher at Indikator Politik Indonesia.