Public Reaction to President Widodo Abandoning PDI-P By SMRC
By Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC), November 23, 2023
47 percent of the public views President Joko Widodo’s behavior within the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) unfavorably.
A survey conducted by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC)1 from October 29 to November 5, 2023, revealed that 47 percent of the public considers Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo’s behavior as inadequate or inappropriate as a member of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
President Joko Widodo, who had been supported by the PDI-P party as mayor, governor, and president, is now seemingly unclear about his support for PDI-P’s nominated candidate for the 2024 presidential election, former Governor of Central Java province, Mr. Ganjar Pranowo. Only 30 percent of respondents viewed Mr. Widodo’s stance appropriate, with 23 percent not providing an answer.
The survey results were presented by Prof. Saiful Mujani in the online program ‘Political Analysis with Saiful Mujani’ in an episode titled “Abandoning PDI-P in the Eyes of the Public,” broadcasted on SMRC TV’s YouTube channel on Thursday, November 23, 2023. The full video of Prof. Saiful’s presentation can be viewed here: https://youtu.be/sy4vBi7jh0Q.
The respondents were explained that Mr. Widodo, as a member of PDI-P, had been supported to become mayor of the Central Java city of Solo, governor of Jakarta, and Indonesia’s president, but now he appears equivocal over supporting Mr. Ganjar as the PDI-P endorsed presidential candidate.
When asked if Mr. Widodo’s behavior toward PDI-P was appropriate, inappropriate, or entirely inappropriate, 30 percent found it appropriate, 39 percent considered it inappropriate, and 8 percent thought it entirely inappropriate. An additional 23 percent did not respond.
According to Mr. Saiful, these data signify a lack of moral support or a tendency toward negativity from the public towards Mr. Widodo’s ambiguous stance, explicitly not advocating for Mr. Ganjar Pranowo as the party’s officially nominated presidential candidate.
Despite attending the declaration of Mr. Ganjar’s candidacy, Mr. Widodo verbally expressed his support for Mr. Ganjar’s victory. However, according to Mr. Saiful, these actions and statements should not have been accompanied by his son Gibran’s candidacy as vice president running mate alongside the Gerindra Party’s Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Mr. Prabowo Subianto.
The survey also reflected public sentiment toward Mr. Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s political actions. The respondents were informed that Mr. Gibran, a member of PDI-P, rising to the position of mayor of the city of Solo because of the party’s endorsement. However, he has since run as Mr. Prabowo Subianto’s vice-presidential running mate, not supporting Mr. Ganjar as PDI-P’s endorsed presidential candidate.
Regarding Mr. Gibran’s stance towards PDI-P, 27 percent deemed it appropriate, 40 percent found it inappropriate, and 10 percent considered it entirely inappropriate. Meanwhile, 23 percent did not respond or were unaware.
Overall, more people expressed dissatisfaction with Mr. Widodo and Gibran’s stances toward PDI-P, where Mr. Widodo’s lack of explicit support for Mr. Ganjar and Mr. Gibran’s vice-presidential candidacy with Mr. Prabowo were viewed as inappropriate.
The survey encompassed all Indonesian citizens eligible to vote in general elections, aged 17 or older or married at the time of the survey. A sample of 2,400 respondents was randomly selected (stratified multistage random sampling) from this population.
The response rate (respondents validly interviewed) was 1,939, accounting for 81%. These 1,939 respondents were analyzed. The survey’s margin of error, based on the sample size, is estimated at ± 2.3% with a 95% confidence level (assuming simple random sampling). The selected respondents were interviewed face-to-face by trained interviewers. Field interviews took place from October 29 to November 5, 2023.
Mr. Saiful also explained that certain political behaviors not only concern what is permissible or impermissible, but also involve what is appropriate or inappropriate, just or unjust, and reasonable or unreasonable. Politicians usually assess the appropriateness of their actions. Therefore, determining whether an action is appropriate or not becomes crucial for politicians.
Saiful emphasized that Mr. Widodo is a politician who climbed the political ladder from the bottom to the apex. The lowest elected political position is that of a district head (regent) or mayor, while the highest is president. Mr. Widodo ascended from the lowest (mayor) to the highest (president) as an elected official endoresd and supported by PDI-P.
“From start to finish, Mr. Widodo has been wholeheartedly PDI-P,” clarified the Political Science Professor from Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta (UIN Jakarta).2
During that extensive span, Ms. Megawati Soekarnoputri was the leader of PDI-P. Mr. Saiful observed that Ms. Megawati’s approach and attitudes toward various issues have remained relatively unchanged.
According to Mr. Saiful, Mr. Widodo’s behavior as a member of PDI-P, showing no definitive stance towards the party’s endorsed presidential candidate, is rather unique.
“Even more people now believe that Mr. Widodo does not support Mr. Ganjar, a member of his own party. Instead, he appears to support his opponent or competitor in the two previous presidential elections. That’s unique. Globally, perhaps such a phenomenon as this has only ever happens in Indonesia. At least, I haven’t seen such a phenomenon elsewhere,” stated Mr. Saiful.
Mr. Saiful likened Mr. Widodo’s political move in supporting Mr. Prabowo rather than supporting Mr. Ganjar, the PDI-P endorsed presidential candidate, to Obama supporting Donald Trump toward the end of his tenure. He noted that such a political move would be unimaginable in the American political landscape. However, in Indonesia, this has happened.
“It would be unimaginable for Mr. Obama, who served two terms as president, then for his party to select the next presidential candidate as Ms. Hillary Clinton, but he doesn’t support Hillary, instead supporting Donald Trump. That’s inconceivable in American politics. However, in Indonesia, such a thing has happened,” said Mr. Saiful.
Furthermore, Mr. Saiful said that although Mr. Widodo never explicitly stated his political preferences, he endorsed his son as Mr. Prabowo’s vice-presidential candidate, opposing the presidential candidate nominated by his own party.
“On a positive note, it’s unique. If we take a more critical perspective, it deviates from the norms of elite political behavior,” he believed.
In Indonesia, according to Mr. Saiful, political shifts are common, but not in cases like Mr. Widodo’s, where the individual is at the pinnacle of power as a president. Mr. Saiful stated that there is still no convincing explanation as to why this has happened.
The same applies in the case of Mr. Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s. Gibran became the Mayor of Solo through the support of PDI-P via a unique process. Mr. Saiful related that before Mr. Gibran’s mayoral candidacy, the Solo branch of PDI-P had another name as a potential candidate. However, Mr. Widodo arrived and requested that PDI-P put forward his son Mr. Gibran. With the prerogative right of the Chair of PDI-P, Ms. Megawati Soekarnoputri, Gibran was eventually chosen as the mayoral candidate.
According to Mr. Saiful, this demonstrates that PDI-P granted special privileges to Mr. Widodo’s son Gibran. However, subsequently, Gibran has come out as Mr. Prabowo’s vice-presidential candidate, and has not supported the presidential candidate endorsed by his own party.
This article is based on: https://saifulmujani.com/47-persen-publik-menilai-kurang-pantas-perilaku-jokowi-pada-pdi-perjuangan/ and https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2023/11/24/15442411/survei-smrc-39-persen-publik-nilai-sikap-jokowi-yang-tak-jelas-dukung-capres
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Footnotes:
- https://saifulmujani.com/ ↩︎
- https://uinjkt.ac.id/id and https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universitas_Islam_Negeri_Syarif_Hidayatullah_Jakarta ↩︎
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