Decline in Public Awareness of Prabowo Alleged Human Rights Violations By SMRC
By the Editor, Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), December 15, 2023
Does the public know that presidential election candidate Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Prabowo Subianto was discharged from military service due to his alleged involvement in serious human rights violations, specifically, the abduction of over a dozen democracy activists in 1998?
Only 42 percent answered “yes” in 2014, which has declined further to 38 percent in 2023. Those confident in their knowledge of Prabowo’s alleged involvement decreased from 52 percent in 2014 to 44 percent in 2023.
This was revealed in a study by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) presented by Prof. Saiful Mujani in the program ‘Political Analysis with Saiful Mujani’ on the the SMRC TV YouTube channel in an episode titled “Human Rights Issues in the 1st Presidential Debate,” broadcasted on Thursday December 14, 2023.
The full video presentation by Professor Saiful can be viewed here.
The decline in public knowledge of and belief in this alleged human rights violation case has somewhat weakened its impact.
“Today the impact of the disappearance case has weakened, because public awareness of the alleged case has declined. Also, public confidence in its knowledge of the case has also diminished. Even some generals who were pivotal in Mr. Prabowo’s dismissal, such as Gen. (Retd.) Wiranto, are now supporting Mr. Prabowo. The same has been observed by a number of activists. Even at the elite level, commitment to this human rights issue has waned,” stated the founder of SMRC.
Prof. Saiful further highlighted that Mr. Prabowo’s human rights issue is crucial electorally, affecting his electability rating by 10 percent. According to experimental studies before the 2019 presidential elections, and the latest study in November 2023, Mr. Prabowo’s electability rating significantly weakened when the number of voters aware of and confident in their knowledge about his discharge from military service due to allegations of serious human rights violations increased.
When controlled for variables, respondents were asked if they would vote for Mr. Prabowo if elections were held now. The results showed 33.7 percent answered “yes,” 44.4 percent answered “no,” and 21.9 percent responded with “don’t know.” In the treatment segment, when asked if they would vote for Mr. Prabowo as president on learning about his involvement in the abduction of democracy activists in 1998, 23.3 percent answered “yes,” 52.6 percent answered “no,” and 24.2 percent did not respond.
These data demonstrate a significant decline in votes for Mr. Prabowo if the public becomes aware of the 1998 democracy activist’s abduction case.
“This means that if the narrative of Mr. Prabowo as a kidnapper is campaigned on, it could erode his support. So for those who aim to campaign against Mr. Prabowo becoming president, increasing the number of voters aware of his involvement in the abductions, and convincing them that Mr. Prabowo is indeed responsible for them is crucial. In fact, he was discharged (because of the case), and he has not opposed (or denied) this,” Prof. Saiful said.
Saiful then presented segments of society that are aware or unaware of the case. In terms of gender, generally, 31 percent of women do not know that Mr. Prabowo was dismissed from military service because of his involvement in the abductions case, while 45 percent of men are unaware of it.
Regarding residential locations, only 31 percent of rural residents know about it, compared to 45 percent of urban dwellers. Younger people are more informed compared to old respondents; only 31 percent of those aged 55 and above know of it, while 42 percent of those aged 25 and below are aware of it.
Higher education levels correspond to greater knowledge; only 24 percent of those with primary education (or lower) are aware of this information, while 58 percent of college graduates know about the case. Similarly, lower-income groups have less awareness, compared to higher-income individuals. Only 24 percent of those earning less than Rp. 1 million ($US67) per month are aware of the information, while 51 percent of those earning over Rp. 2 million ($US133) per month know about the case.
According to Prof. Saiful, this data shows that women, rural residents, older respondents, individuals with lower education attainment and income levels have limited access to information about the case.
“There are socio-economic factors, limited education, residing in rural areas, and social-economic discrimination against women. These are profiles of individuals who are unaware that Mr. Prabowo, a presidential candidate, is involved in a case of abduction or serious human rights violations,” clarified Prof. Saiful.
Prof. Saiful stated that for human rights activists, for instance, the challenge is to ensure that a majority of the public are aware of the serious human rights issues in Indonesia’s presidential election this time.
“Currently, only about 38 percent of the public are aware. Let’s make it 70 percent. How? That’s part of a dignified agenda for socialization and political campaigns,” he concluded.
This article is based on: https://saifulmujani.com/publik-yang-tahu-pelanggaran-ham-oleh-prabowo-menurun/
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