Poll by Charta Politika: Prabowo’s Electability Declines After Partnering with Gibran

By Charta Politika, Jakarta

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Executive Director of political consultancy Charta Politika¹, Mr. Yunarto Wijaya², believes the prospective vice-presidential candidate, and oldest son of President Joko Widodo and Mayor of the Central Java city of Solo, Mr. Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is become a liability for presidential front runner, Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Prabowo Subianto.

He said this in the light of the declining electability of Mr. Prabowo after announcing Mr. Gibran as his running mate for the 2024 presidential election.

“We can observe or speculate and hypothesize that the inclusion of Older Brother Gibran as a running mate has become a liability, not an asset,” said Mr. Yunarto at a press conference on Monday, November 6, 2023.

Yunarto said that based on a survey conducted from October 13 to 17, 2023, Mr. Prabowo’s electability was ahead of Mr. Ganjar Pranowo in a head-to-head comparison, with a margin of 9.8 percent, at 49.4 percent to 39.6 percent respectively.

However, Mr. Prabowo’s electability decreased to 44.4 percent in a survey conducted from October 26 to 31, 2023, following the announcement of Mr. Gibran as his running mate. During the same period, Mr. Ganjar’s electability, who had already teamed up with Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Prof. Dr. Mahfud MD as his running mate, actually increased to 40.8 percent.

The difference in electability between Mr. Prabowo and Mr. Ganjar in the latest survey has narrowed to 3.6 percent. “Although Older Brother Gibran confidently says, ‘Don’t worry, Mr. Prabowo, I’m here,’ it turns out that electorally and statistically this has become a burden for Mr. Prabowo,” Mr. Yunarto said.

Mr. Yunarto explained further that Mr. Gibran’s position as running mate has also reduced the proportion of Jakarta Governor Mr. Anies Baswedan’s supporters who would have voted for Mr. Prabowo.

“Anies’ voters were previously mostly in favor of Mr. Prabowo, but they have started to have doubts, with some leaning towards Older Brother Ganjar, not many, but more towards being undecided voters,” he said.

According to Mr. Yunarto, this is not surprising because Mr. Anies’ voters are a group that could be considered anti or opposed to President Joko Widodo. As a result, they tend to be reluctant to vote for Mr. Gibran, who is President Widodo’s eldest son.

“They may still forgive Mr. Prabowo for becoming a minister, endorsed by President Widodo, but teaming up with the president’s son is associated with issue of political dynasty, and so on.

When we look at it here it has the potential and has already become an electoral burden for Mr. Prabowo,” explained Mr. Yunarto.

In its latest survey, Charta Politika also conducted a simulation of the three candidate pairs who have registered with the General Elections Commission. The results showed that the Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD team was the top choice for respondents, with an electability of 36.8 percent.

The Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka team came in second with 34.7 percent. Finally, the electability of the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar pair stood at 24.3 percent. “In paired combinations, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD is the top choice, followed by Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka and then Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar,” concluded Mr. Yunarto.

Gibran Unsuitable to Be a Running Mate

The Charta Politika survey also revealed that nearly half of respondents, or 48.9 percent, considered Mayor of Solo, and eldest son of President Widodo, Mr. Gibran Rakabuming Raka unsuitable to be a candidate for vice president in the 2024 presidential election.

“We asked further about Mr. Gibran’s suitability to stand as a running mate, with 48.9 percent stating he is unsuitable, and 38.2 percent stating he is suitable,” explained Mr. Yunarto.

Mr. Yunarto stated that among those who considered Mr. Gibran unsuitable to stand as a running mate, the majority, or 55.4 percent, believed that Mr. Gibran was still too young and lacked experience as a public official.

As is generally known, Mr. Gibran has served as the Mayor of Solo for less than three years before deciding to stand as the running mate of Mr. Prabowo Subianto.

According to Mr. Yunarto, this is different to the experience of President Joko Widodo, Mr. Gibran’s father. Before running for the 2014 presidential election, Jokowi had almost two terms of experience leading the Central Java city of Solo and as the governor of Jakarta.

“26.7 percent of respondents feel that Mr. Gibran is unsuitable because he is part of the practice of political dynasties. With a more negative tone, 12.4 percent stated that the Gibran candidacy for vice president is a clear form of the misuse of power by President Joko Widodo,” he said.

Also, 3.2 percent believed that Mr. Gibran is unsuitable because he is regarded as ambitious and lacks loyalty to political parties, while 2.3 percent of respondents did not know or did not answer. The survey was conducted from October 26 to 31, with interviews conducted with 2,400 respondents from 38 provinces across Indonesia. The survey has a margin of error of approximately 2.0 percent.

This article is based on: https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2023/11/06/15130131/survei-charta-politika-elektabilitas-prabowo-turun-usai-gandeng-gibran

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Footnotes:

1. https://www.chartapolitika.com/ ↩︎
2. For a short biography see https://www.chartapolitika.com/profile/manajemen/. ↩︎